Albertans are set to vote on independence for the first time on Monday, a landmark provincial referendum that could signal the future of the province’s long-standing separatist movement. Despite years of advocacy, polls indicate the pro-independence side faces a significant uphill battle, with a vast majority favoring remaining part of Canada.

For decades, the idea of an independent Alberta has simmered, fueled by grievances over federal policies and economic disparities, particularly concerning the province's vital oil industry. This referendum represents a culmination of efforts by dedicated separatists to bring the issue to the forefront of public discourse and onto the ballot.

Cory Morgan, founder of Pathway to Independence, has dedicated over 25 years to the cause. While he acknowledges the potential for a loss, he remains resolute, stating he would respect the voters' decision but would not cease his efforts. "If they’ve decided it’s not time to go that route yet, then so be it. But that doesn’t mean I’ll stop," Morgan told Al Jazeera.

The referendum's wording allows Albertans to vote either to remain part of Canada or to initiate the legal process for a future referendum on separation. Political scientists note that this ambiguity has been leveraged by some organizers to encourage strategic voting, aiming to send a message to the federal government in Ottawa rather than immediately pursuing independence.

Research from Viewpoint Alberta suggests that a significant majority of those supporting the referendum are doing so for strategic reasons, to signal to Ottawa that Albertans' concerns need to be addressed. These individuals, sometimes referred to as "reluctant separatists," are reportedly "at the end of their rope" with the current federal-provincial relationship.

Historically, referendums on separation, even when unsuccessful, have not necessarily extinguished secessionist movements. In Quebec, for instance, two referendums on sovereignty in 1980 and 1995, though ultimately failing to achieve separation, kept the debate alive and influenced federal-provincial politics for years.

The path to independence for any Canadian province is fraught with complex legal and political challenges. Any attempt to secede would necessitate extensive negotiations involving the federal government, other provincial governments, and Indigenous peoples.

While Monday's vote may not result in immediate separation, its outcome will undoubtedly shape the ongoing dialogue surrounding Alberta's place within Canada and the future trajectory of its independence movement. The long-term impact hinges on whether a potential loss galvanizes or dissipates the energy of separatists and how the federal government responds to the underlying grievances expressed by Albertans.