South Africa’s long-dominant African National Congress (ANC) is on track for significantly diminished results in the ongoing municipal elections, with early tallies showing a sharp decline in its vote share. The party, which has led the nation since the end of apartheid in 1994, was polling at approximately 32 percent after more than half of the votes were counted, a stark drop from previous electoral performances.

The results indicate a potential weakening of the ANC's grip on key urban centers, including Johannesburg, as opposition parties gain traction. The Democratic Alliance (DA) is currently in second place with 25 percent of the vote, while former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party has secured third place with 8.5 percent, trailing behind pre-election projections.

These municipal elections are seen as a crucial barometer of public sentiment ahead of the 2029 general election. The ANC, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, has faced widespread criticism for municipal mismanagement, leading to persistent issues such as power outages, water supply failures, and deteriorating public services. Corruption allegations have also eroded voter confidence.

The implications of these results could be far-reaching, potentially forcing the ANC into more complex coalition negotiations or further diminishing its political influence. The party's performance in these local elections is a critical test of its ability to retain support amidst growing challenges from opposition movements and public dissatisfaction.

Historically, the ANC has performed less strongly in municipal elections compared to national polls. In the 2021 municipal elections, its national vote share fell below 50 percent for the first time, reaching 46 percent. This trend continued into the 2024 national elections, where the party garnered just over 40 percent, compelling it to form a national unity government that included the DA and eight other parties.

The Independent Electoral Commission reported that approximately 15.9 million of the 29.2 million registered voters cast ballots, resulting in an estimated turnout of 54.5 percent. This figure represents an increase from the 46 percent turnout recorded in the 2021 elections, which were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The MK party had been anticipated to perform strongly, potentially securing an outright majority in Durban. However, projections from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) suggest its support in the eastern port city may settle around 32 percent. Meanwhile, the DA is projected to maintain its control over Cape Town, with an estimated 56 percent of the vote.

The unfolding results highlight a significant shift in South Africa's political landscape, with voters expressing their discontent over governance issues. The final outcomes will determine the control of eight major metropolitan municipalities and numerous local councils, setting the stage for future political contests.