Upon entering 10 Downing Street, Prime Minister Andy Burnham will inherit a series of complex and persistent challenges that have eluded resolution by previous administrations. BBC Verify has identified five significant policy areas that will demand his immediate attention and strategic decision-making.

The most pressing issue is the escalating cost of sickness and disability benefits, projected to reach £78 billion annually by 2030, up from the current £58 billion. A primary driver is the surge in claims for Personal Independence Payments (Pip), with forecasts indicating a rise from four million to five million recipients by 2030. Notably, the proportion of younger claimants with mental health conditions or neurodevelopmental disorders is rapidly increasing.

Previous government attempts to curb this spending, including a recent proposed £5 billion annual reduction by tightening Pip eligibility, were met with a significant backlash and ultimately a U-turn. An interim report by disability minister Sir Stephen Timms acknowledged the Pip system is not functioning effectively. The upcoming final Timms report may propose reforms, potentially shifting focus towards therapeutic support for younger individuals with mental health issues rather than direct cash payments, though this carries the risk of opposition from disability groups and within his own party.

Burnham has indicated a desire to reduce the welfare bill by promoting employment rather than through "crude cuts." This approach suggests a focus on job creation and support programs tailored to help individuals with disabilities and long-term health conditions re-enter the workforce.

Another significant hurdle is the demand for increased defense spending. The recent Defence Investment Plan commits to reaching 2.7% of GDP by 2030, but this falls short of calls from some quarters, including former defence secretary John Healey, to reach 3%. Such an increase would require an additional £9 billion annually. Furthermore, NATO's target of 3.5% by 2035 presents a further financial commitment of £24 billion per year relative to current plans.

Potential funding mechanisms, such as issuing "war bonds," have been suggested to avoid tax increases or spending cuts in other areas. Beyond funding, reforming the historically wasteful defense procurement system, which oversees projects for planes, ships, and weaponry, will be a critical task for Burnham if he is to ensure value for money from increased defense investments.

Burnham will also face pressure to address the ongoing housing crisis. While specific figures for this challenge were not detailed in the provided material, the context implies a need for substantial policy intervention to alleviate pressures in the housing market.

The article also touches upon the need to address the national debt, which has grown significantly, and the challenge of balancing fiscal responsibility with public service funding. The scale of these interconnected issues presents a formidable agenda for the new Prime Minister.

Finally, Burnham will need to navigate the complexities of public service reform, ensuring efficient and effective delivery of essential services amidst budgetary constraints and evolving societal needs. The success of his premiership will likely hinge on his ability to find innovative and sustainable solutions to these multifaceted problems.