As Colombia heads towards its presidential election on May 31, President Gustavo Petro's signature 'Total Peace' policy is under intense debate, with many questioning its effectiveness amid escalating conflict. The policy, designed to negotiate an end to decades of armed struggle with various rebel and criminal groups, has become a significant point of contention.

The 'Total Peace' initiative was Petro's central promise upon taking office in 2022, aiming to bring lasting calm to a nation long plagued by internal conflict. However, data from the Colombian think tank Fundación Ideas Para la Paz (FIP) indicates a stark increase in armed group activity. The number of active fighters has reportedly more than doubled since 2022, rising from approximately 13,000 to around 27,000 by the close of 2025.

Violent incidents have also seen a significant uptick. The number of disputes between armed groups reached a ten-year high in the past year, marking a 34 percent increase compared to 2024. Residents in conflict-affected regions, like Caqueta, describe a pervasive atmosphere of fear and restricted movement, with one resident noting, "People are scared. We are in a very difficult situation. We can’t move for food, supplies or anything."

With the election just days away, the future of Petro's policy hangs in the balance. Only one leading presidential candidate has expressed commitment to continuing the 'Total Peace' plan; the others have signaled their intention to abandon it. Experts suggest the policy is now widely perceived as a political disadvantage for the current administration.

The challenges are starkly illustrated in areas like Cartagena del Chairá in the Caqueta region. Local communities have faced severe restrictions on movement, imposed by groups such as the Carolina Ramirez Front of the Estado Mayor Central (EMC). These restrictions, often enforced through threats, effectively cut off vital supply lines and access to essential services like education.

Javier Florez, director of conflict and security at the Fundación, described the policy's current standing as "in the red." This sentiment reflects a growing disillusionment among a populace yearning for security and stability, a promise that 'Total Peace' has, thus far, struggled to deliver.

Petro's administration has engaged in complex negotiations with various factions, including the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissident groups from the FARC. However, these dialogues have been fraught with difficulties, marked by breakdowns in ceasefires and ongoing hostilities, complicating any prospect of sustained peace.

As voters prepare to cast their ballots, the legacy of 'Total Peace' will undoubtedly be a key factor. The election outcome will determine whether Colombia pursues a continuation of Petro's ambitious, yet embattled, peace strategy or charts a new course in its long pursuit of lasting tranquility.