Europe must transition to a war economy to effectively defend itself and counter Russia, particularly as United States support for Ukraine becomes increasingly uncertain, according to an analysis by Maximilian Hess, a Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The ongoing conflict on Europe's doorstep has been treated as a distant threat, but it is actively "eroding the very foundations on which Europe stands," the analysis states.

Russia's war has inflicted immense devastation on Ukraine, but the challenge for Europe extends beyond the battlefield. Supporting Ukraine and containing Russia have strained the continent's economic resources and political unity. With U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly seeking to force a settlement on Kyiv and threatening to withdraw American aid, Europe faces the prospect of bearing a significantly larger portion of the burden alone.

Even if immediate crises are resolved, Europe can no longer rely on Washington for its security. The continent needs to develop the financial capacity to sustain Ukraine's defense, bolster its industrial strength for self-defense, and establish economic leverage to constrain Moscow. The past four years have provided lessons on how Europe can finance such efforts, but also highlighted divisions that could undermine them.

The European Union has already played a crucial role in financing Ukraine, moving from an 18.1-billion-euro share of G7 loans in 2024 to a new 90-billion-euro loan finalized in April without U.S. commitment. However, internal disagreements persist on key issues, particularly regarding measures to constrain Russia. While the EU has implemented its largest-ever round of sanctions, these largely expanded existing restrictions without broadening the scope of prohibited activities or accelerating the phase-out of Russian energy imports.

European leaders have also voiced concerns over Trump's decision to waive new Russia-related sanctions. The analysis draws a parallel to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, suggesting that Europe's measures against Russian hydrocarbons could have been more stringent. Before February, significant volumes of crude oil, oil products, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passed through the Strait of Hormuz, dwarfing Russia's comparable exports.

The article notes that Russia's energy exports, while substantial, represent a fraction of the volumes that pass through critical shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz. This comparison underscores the potential impact of more decisive European action against Russian energy supplies.

As the conflict continues and geopolitical dynamics shift, the need for a comprehensive European strategy becomes more apparent. The analysis implies that a unified and robust economic response is necessary to ensure regional stability and support Ukraine effectively.

Unresolved questions remain regarding the extent of Europe's ability to mobilize its industrial and financial resources and whether political will can overcome internal divisions to implement the proposed 'war economy' measures.