Germany has authorized nearly 800 million euros ($913 million) in arms export licenses to Israel in the first five months of 2026, a figure that surpasses the total for the preceding 20 months combined. The Federal Foreign Office confirmed this significant increase in permissions, with the majority of approvals occurring in April and May. This surge marks a notable shift in Germany's approach to its key ally, occurring despite Berlin's stated concerns over the extensive destruction caused by Israel's military operations in Gaza.

The substantial increase in approved arms exports is largely attributed to a single, undisclosed "major maritime project," which accounts for over 60 percent of the total value. Analysts widely believe this project involves the procurement of a submarine from German manufacturer TKMS. The INS Drakon, a nuclear-capable Dolphin II-class submarine, which recently completed its sea trials and was handed over to the Israeli Navy, is the likely candidate. Reports suggest this submarine could be equipped with a vertical launching system (VLS), potentially enabling the launch of nuclear-tipped cruise or ballistic missiles, a capability that would make Israel only the second navy globally to field such a system on a modern, conventionally powered submarine.

This development comes as the German government continues to navigate complex geopolitical considerations and its historical responsibilities. While Germany maintains a strong commitment to Israel's security, the scale and nature of the arms transfers, particularly those with potential second-strike capabilities, raise questions about the implications for regional stability. The specifics of the submarine project's weaponry configuration have been deliberately obscured, with its tower covered during sea trials to prevent detailed observation of its weapons systems.

The implications of this arms deal extend beyond immediate military capabilities. The potential for Israel to enhance its sea-based second-strike nuclear capability could significantly alter the strategic balance in the Middle East. Submarines of this class are designed to provide a retaliatory nuclear strike option, even after enduring a first nuclear attack. This raises concerns among international observers and peace advocates regarding nuclear proliferation and the potential for escalation in an already volatile region.

Further underscoring the deepening defense ties, TKMS recently signed a memorandum of understanding with Elbit Systems, Israel's largest private defense contractor, signaling continued collaboration on future projects. However, both the German Foreign Office and the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy declined to comment on the specifics of the arms export approvals, contributing to a general lack of transparency surrounding such transactions, according to Max Mutschler, a senior researcher at the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies.

This situation echoes past uncertainties regarding arms exports to Israel. Reports in the previous year conflicted on whether the export license for a submarine had been granted, with TKMS indicating approval while the German government initially denied it. The original order for the submarine dates back to 2012, highlighting a long-standing defense relationship that has seen periods of both open collaboration and discreet dealings.

The German government's current stance appears to balance its commitment to its ally with international scrutiny. While the approvals have been granted, the lack of explicit detail from official sources fuels debate about the extent of Germany's involvement and its adherence to its own strict arms export control policies, particularly in light of ongoing conflicts and humanitarian concerns.

As the "major maritime project" progresses, the international community will likely be watching closely for further details and the potential impact on regional security dynamics. The surge in arms licenses, coupled with the strategic implications of advanced submarine technology, underscores the complex and evolving nature of the German-Israeli defense relationship.