Global oil reserves are precariously low and could sustain the world for only one to two months if the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route, were to be completely shut off amid escalating tensions. Oil prices have climbed towards their highest levels in five months as attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz mount, and diplomatic efforts to resolve the United States-Israel war on Iran remain deadlocked.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by more than $2 to $110.85 a barrel on Wednesday, nearing a five-month peak. This surge in prices underscores the growing concern over potential supply disruptions in one of the world's most vital energy chokepoints.

The situation has been exacerbated by recent incidents. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for setting two tankers ablaze after they allegedly struck mines at an "illegal crossing point" in the strait. While the IRGC later stated it had hit seven more tankers, Washington has dismissed these claims. In September, Houthi rebels also seized territory near the Bab al-Mandeb strait, another crucial maritime route connecting the Red Sea to Egypt's Suez Canal.

These escalating events come at a time when the world's emergency oil stocks, heavily depleted since the Iran war began on February 28, are at their lowest levels in decades. Analysts are now questioning the sufficiency of these reserves should further disruptions occur.

Strategic oil reserves are stockpiles of crude oil and fuel maintained by governments or companies to be used during supply emergencies. The International Energy Agency (IEA), established in 1974, coordinates many of these reserves, requiring its importing members to hold at least 90 days of net imports. Notably, China and India are not members of the IEA.

This year has seen a record draw from these emergency supplies. On March 11, shortly after the Iran war commenced, IEA members agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency stocks, more than double the amount released following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The United States committed 172.2 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), and Japan contributed 79.8 million barrels, according to IEA figures. The US SPR has since fallen to 283 million barrels, its lowest point since October 1982.

The substantial depletion of these reserves, combined with the potential for further disruptions at key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb strait, paints a concerning picture for global energy security. The market's reaction, with oil prices climbing, reflects this underlying anxiety.

As the conflict in the Middle East continues and diplomatic solutions remain elusive, the world's ability to weather prolonged supply shocks hinges on the remaining, significantly reduced, emergency oil stockpiles. The question of how long these reserves can buffer the impact of a complete shutdown of critical shipping lanes remains a pressing concern for global economies.