The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to experience below-average tropical activity, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This forecast is largely attributed to the anticipated emergence and persistence of El Niño conditions throughout the season.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and concludes on November 30. NOAA's outlook indicates a 55% probability of a below-average season, with an expected range of eight to 14 named storms. Of these, three to six are predicted to become hurricanes, with one to three potentially reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or stronger).

An average Atlantic hurricane season typically features 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The agency's predictions focus on the overall seasonal activity and do not forecast the number of storms that will make landfall or their specific impact locations. Last year, the 2025 season saw 13 named storms, slightly under the long-term average, and notably, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States for the first time in a decade.

Despite the lack of U.S. landfalls in 2025, the season was still significant, producing three Category 5 hurricanes, including Hurricane Melissa, which caused extensive damage in Jamaica. This highlights that even a less active season can still bring powerful and destructive storms.

The current forecast for a below-average season contrasts with concerns raised about the U.S. Atlantic Coast becoming a "breeding ground" for rapidly intensifying hurricanes due to climate change, a phenomenon noted by scientists in previous assessments. The interplay between global climate patterns like El Niño and long-term climate trends continues to be a key area of study for hurricane forecasters.

El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon can influence atmospheric conditions across the globe, including the Atlantic basin, by altering wind patterns and increasing wind shear, which can suppress hurricane development.

NOAA's hurricane outlooks are developed by the Climate Prediction Center and provide an assessment of the overall likelihood of seasonal activity. These forecasts are updated periodically as the season progresses and new data becomes available, allowing for adjustments based on evolving meteorological conditions.

As the 2026 hurricane season approaches, residents in hurricane-prone regions are advised to stay informed about forecasts and to have preparedness plans in place, regardless of the predicted activity level. The potential for intense storms remains, even in a below-average season.