The secessionist Parti Quebecois (PQ) has secured the most seats in Quebec’s provincial election and is poised to form the next government, according to media reports from October 6, 2026. This electoral outcome revives the long-standing question of Quebec's independence from Canada and presents a significant national unity challenge for Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the PQ campaigned on a promise to hold a third referendum on Quebec's secession from Canada during its first term in power. Plamondon indicated that this referendum would be contingent on the departure of U.S. President Donald Trump from office in January 2029, suggesting a strategic timing for such a pivotal vote.

It remains to be seen whether the PQ has achieved the 64 seats necessary for a clear majority in the 127-seat National Assembly. Should the party fall short, it would govern as a minority administration, requiring the support of opposition members to pass legislation and maintain confidence.

This victory marks a substantial resurgence for the Parti Quebecois, which had previously held power from 2012 to 2014. The party had won only three seats in the 2022 provincial election, making its current success a notable comeback. The PQ's return to government also signifies the end of eight years of rule by the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), a centre-right nationalist party that did not advocate for independence.

Political science professor Daniel Beland of McGill University suggested that the PQ's win reflects the fragmentation of Quebec's political landscape, with support spread across multiple parties, rather than a sudden surge in separatist sentiment. Beland noted that support for independence currently hovers around 30 percent, which is historically low.

Despite the current low polling for independence, Beland emphasized that a government led by a secessionist party in Quebec poses a new national unity test for Prime Minister Carney, especially with another independence-related vote looming in Alberta. The timing of the PQ's victory, shortly before a referendum in Alberta, could be interpreted by the U.S. administration as a sign that national unity remains a critical issue in Canada, regardless of Carney's popularity.

Quebec has held two previous referendums on independence, in 1980 and 1995. Both resulted in voters choosing to remain part of Canada, although the 1995 vote was decided by a very narrow margin. No further independence referendums have been held in the three decades since.

The election results in Quebec will be closely watched nationally and internationally as the province, and Canada as a whole, grapple with the renewed debate over sovereignty.