Sudan and Ethiopia have engaged in tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, escalating tensions between the neighboring countries. Ethiopia ordered six Sudanese diplomats to leave within 48 hours and closed Sudan’s consulate in the border town of Asosa, according to officials from both nations.

These actions come as Sudan accuses Ethiopia of allowing the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group to use its territory for drone attacks on civilian infrastructure. Simultaneously, Ethiopia claims that Sudan is backing rebels in its northern Tigray region. These mutual accusations highlight a deepening rift that could have significant regional implications.

On Sunday, Sudan formally lodged complaints against Ethiopia with the United Nations Security Council and the African Union’s Peace and Security Council. Sudan cited evidence that Ethiopia had permitted the RSF to launch deadly drone strikes against Sudanese civilian targets. Amjad Farid, a political advisor to Sudan’s Transitional Sovereign Council, stated that Sudan is committed to defending its territory but is making efforts to avoid open conflict with Ethiopia.

A direct military confrontation with Ethiopia would severely strain Sudan's already embattled military, which has been engaged in intense fighting with the RSF since April 2023. The Sudanese military has consistently accused Ethiopia of supporting the RSF, allegations that Addis Ababa has repeatedly denied. Conversely, Ethiopia has accused the Sudanese government of backing rebels affiliated with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, a charge Khartoum has also refuted.

The recent expulsions follow a pattern of diplomatic friction between Ethiopia and its neighbors. In early October, Ethiopia expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Eritrea, prompting Eritrea to sever diplomatic ties. Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat last month, a move linked to ongoing disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

These diplomatic maneuvers occur against a backdrop of significant internal conflict within Sudan. The ongoing civil war between the Sudanese army and the RSF has created a severe humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and warnings of widespread famine. The accusations against Ethiopia add another layer of complexity to Sudan's already precarious security situation.

Ethiopia's claims of Sudanese support for Tigrayan rebels are also significant. The Tigray region has experienced prolonged conflict and instability, and accusations of external backing for rebel groups can further destabilize the area and complicate efforts for peace and reconstruction.

The escalating diplomatic disputes raise concerns about border security and regional stability. The ability of either nation to project power or support proxy forces across their shared border could have far-reaching consequences for the Horn of Africa.