Sweden is heading to the polls in a closely contested general election on Sunday, with the nation's policy towards Israel and Palestine emerging as a significant electoral issue. The outcome could potentially alter Sweden's long-standing stance on the conflict, particularly its 2014 recognition of Palestine, a move that strained relations with Israel.

The political landscape in Sweden is divided into two main blocs. The current right-wing government, comprised of the Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Liberals, has been supported by the far-right Sweden Democrats since 2022. The left-wing bloc consists of the Social Democrats, the Left Party, and the Greens, with the Centre Party as a potential ally. Recent polls suggest the left-wing coalition holds a slight lead.

The Sweden Democrats, now the country's second-largest party, have explicitly called for the revocation of Sweden's recognition of Palestine. This stance contrasts with the historical engagement Sweden has had with the conflict, dating back to the 1948 assassination of Count Folke Bernadotte, the UN's first mediator for Palestine, and later brokering talks between Yasser Arafat and American Jewish leaders.

If the right-wing bloc secures victory, current government policies are likely to continue. This includes not classifying Israel's actions in Gaza as genocide and not joining South Africa's case at the International Court of Justice. The government also previously suspended funding to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, following Israeli allegations against some staff.

Conversely, a victory for the left-wing coalition could signal a renewed emphasis on supporting Palestinian rights and potentially reaffirming Sweden's recognition of Palestine. The Social Democrats, in particular, have historically advocated for a two-state solution and have been critical of Israeli policies.

The debate over foreign policy, including the approach to the Middle East, reflects broader divisions within Swedish society and the political parties. The Sweden Democrats' growing influence has pushed foreign policy issues, previously less prominent, into the electoral spotlight.

Experts suggest that regardless of the election's immediate outcome, the debate surrounding Sweden's role and policy in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is likely to persist, reflecting the complexities and sensitivities of the issue on both a national and international level.

Historical context indicates Sweden's deep involvement in peace efforts, making its current electoral debate a critical juncture for its future foreign policy direction regarding one of the world's most protracted conflicts.