The future of international peacekeeping in southern Lebanon remains uncertain as the mandate for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) approaches its expiration at the end of the year. Despite strong support for peacekeepers in a region devastated by conflict since 2023, any successor mission is expected to involve fewer troops and operate within a broader regional agreement.

UNIFIL's mission, established in 1978 during the Lebanese civil war, has been tasked with maintaining peace and stability in southern Lebanon. However, it has faced criticism from various parties for its perceived inability to fully implement UN Resolution 1701, which calls for Israeli troop withdrawal behind the Blue Line, deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces to the south, and the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Political scientist Imad Salamey stated that achieving lasting peace requires a domestic and regional consensus, including Lebanese state authority over arms, Israeli withdrawal, respect for Lebanese sovereignty, and Iran's noninterference. He emphasized that international forces can support peace but cannot replace a fundamental agreement among stakeholders.

Analysts suggest that the potential scaling back or phasing out of UNIFIL is linked to the United States adopting Israel's position, potentially allowing the Israeli military greater operational freedom without an international monitoring body. Negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, brokered by the U.S., are ongoing and have led to a "framework agreement" aimed at establishing "pilot zones" where Israeli troops would withdraw and the Lebanese Army would assume control.

UNIFIL's current role has largely been limited to monitoring violations of the Blue Line, a de facto border. The force was never endowed with the authority to forcibly disarm groups like Hezbollah or compel Israel to cease cross-border incursions, according to Salamey. Its mandate has primarily focused on monitoring, reporting, coordination, and assisting the Lebanese Armed Forces.

The potential reduction in peacekeeping presence raises concerns about security gaps in a volatile region. The ongoing conflict since 2023 has resulted in thousands of casualties, underscoring the persistent need for stability mechanisms.

Resolution 1701, adopted two decades ago, remains a key point of contention and a goal that has eluded full implementation. The direct talks between Lebanon and Israel are seen as a critical juncture for potentially resolving some of the issues that UNIFIL has struggled to address.

Questions remain about the specifics of any future peacekeeping arrangement, including troop numbers, operational mandates, and the extent of regional cooperation required to ensure effective security in southern Lebanon.