United States forces have recently struck Iran’s Qeshm, Kish, and Abu Musa islands as part of an escalating campaign that has also targeted port cities along Iran’s southern coast, including Bandar Abbas. These attacks have reignited discussions about whether Washington is preparing to seize Iranian territory, a question that has persisted since the early weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran.

In March, The Washington Post reported that the US Department of Defence was preparing for raids on Kharg Island, a critical hub for approximately 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports. This report fueled speculation about a potential ground operation. Although talk of a seizure subsided after a memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17, the possibility has resurfaced following US President Donald Trump's refusal to rule out such an operation in a recent Fox News interview.

Experts suggest that the US possesses the tactical military capability to occupy Iranian islands. Andreas Krieg, an associate professor in security studies at King's College London, stated that with sufficient air, naval, and amphibious power, and a willingness to accept the ensuing escalation, the US could capture a small Iranian island. The US maintains an estimated 50,000 soldiers stationed across the Middle East.

Nader Hashemi, a professor of Middle East politics at Georgetown University, indicated that the US also has the military and logistical capacity to occupy captured islands, owing to its status as the pre-eminent global military power. However, the critical consideration, according to Hashemi, is the associated cost.

Krieg elaborated that temporarily capturing an island differs significantly from holding, supplying, and deriving strategic benefit from it. He noted that Qeshm, being a large island adjacent to the Iranian mainland, would present greater challenges than a more isolated outpost. Smaller islands like Hengam could be more easily overrun but would remain vulnerable to Iranian artillery, drones, missiles, and small-boat attacks. The simultaneous seizure of multiple islands would constitute a major amphibious campaign, he added.

The US military's capability to conduct such an operation, while significant, would likely result in a dramatic military spectacle. However, analysts express doubt about Washington's willingness to incur the substantial costs associated with occupying and holding Iranian territory, particularly given the potential for protracted conflict and significant resource expenditure.

The ongoing strikes on Iran's southern coast and islands underscore the strategic importance of the region and the complex geopolitical dynamics at play. The US military's actions, coupled with the rhetoric from political leaders, suggest a potential shift in strategy, though the long-term implications remain uncertain.

Further analysis will be needed to assess the full impact of these military actions on regional stability, international relations, and global energy markets. The willingness of the US to sustain such operations, and Iran's response, will be key factors in shaping future developments.