The internationally recognized Yemeni government has launched a significant new military offensive aimed at pushing back the Houthi movement, a campaign that hinges on securing the support of powerful tribes residing in Houthi-controlled areas. This offensive, named 'Dawn of Yemen,' is testing the government's ability to convince wary tribal leaders that the tide of the conflict is turning.

For years, many tribes have remained hesitant to openly challenge the Houthis, largely due to the armed group's military strength and the memory of previous failed uprisings. These tribes are now closely observing the government's newly opened frontlines along the Red Sea coast, in Marib, and al-Jawf to gauge the potential for sustained government gains.

The offensive follows major territorial gains by the Houthis in September, during which they captured vital trade routes including the port city of Mocha and territory surrounding the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. While recent government airstrikes have inflicted losses, pushing towards Houthi strongholds like Sanaa, Saada, and Amran remains a significant challenge.

Experts suggest that tribal distrust of the government could diminish as the conflict intensifies, potentially leading tribes to shift their allegiances. The active participation of these tribes could prove critical for the government's ability to advance deeper into Houthi-held territories and achieve its stated goal of recapturing Sanaa.

On Monday, a large tribal rally took place in Marib, a government stronghold. Tribal sheikhs and local anti-Houthi fighters, representing tribes such as the Jadan from Marib and Nihm from Sanaa, announced a general mobilization to support the armed forces. This mobilization aims to "restore the state and topple the Houthi coup."

Adel Dashela, a researcher at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, commented that if this tribal support translates into actual, sustained participation, it will significantly aid government troops in advancing towards Houthi-controlled areas and the group's heartland.

The outcome of this government offensive will likely depend not only on military strategy but also on the complex web of tribal loyalties and the perceived strength of the government's position. Many tribes may adopt a wait-and-see approach, only committing their support once tangible and lasting military successes are evident.

This strategic reliance on tribal forces highlights the decentralized nature of power in Yemen and underscores the critical role these groups play in shaping the country's ongoing conflict. The government's success in this new phase of the war may well be determined by its ability to forge and maintain these vital alliances.