14 Tossup House Races Will Decide Control of Next Congress
Fourteen competitive House races rated as 'Tossup' by ABC News are poised to determine which party controls the next Congress.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot Tuesday, but 14 races across the country are considered 'Tossups' by ABC News, meaning their outcomes are too close to call and will be critical in deciding which party holds the majority in the 120th Congress.
Democrats need to gain at least three seats to secure control of the House. The outcomes of these closely contested districts could swing the balance of power, influencing legislative priorities and the direction of national policy for the next two years.
Among the pivotal races is Alabama's 2nd Congressional District, where incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures faces Republican state representative Rhett Marques. This newly drawn district, which President Donald Trump would have carried by 14 points in 2024, has approximately 40% of its voting-age population as Black voters, a demographic Figures is counting on for strong turnout.
In Colorado's 5th Congressional District, Republican incumbent Jeff Crank is in a tight contest with Democrat Jessica Killin, an Army veteran. While the district, which includes Colorado Springs, has leaned more left in recent presidential cycles, Trump won it by about 9 points in 2024. The ongoing Iran war is a significant issue in this race, with Crank supporting the conflict but questioning the need for congressional approval.
Florida's 22nd Congressional District features an open seat with two political newcomers: Marine Corps veteran Casey Askar (Republican) and former teacher and U.S. Education Department official Pia Dandiya (Democrat). This newly drawn district spans parts of Palm Beach, Broward counties, and Naples.
Iowa's 2nd Congressional District is also open as incumbent Ashley Hinson runs for the Senate. This historically Republican seat pits state representative and chaplain Lindsey James (Democrat) against lobbyist and former state representative Joe Mitchell (Republican), who worked on Trump's transition team. Trump won this district by 10 points in 2024, but economic impacts from the Iran war and tariffs on the agriculture-heavy district have made the race competitive.
Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, an open seat, sees former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo (Democrat) facing physician and former state senator Ralph Alvarado (Republican). Although redistricting has made this district more Republican-friendly in recent years, it was a consistent target for Democrats when former Rep. Andy Barr held the seat.
Other toss-up races include Michigan's 4th Congressional District, where incumbent Republican Bill Huizenga is challenged by.
The close nature of these races highlights the divided political landscape and the potential for a narrow majority in the House, leading to intense campaigning and voter engagement in these key districts. The final vote counts in these 14 races are expected to provide a clear indication of the nation's political mood and the priorities of its voters.
This article was written by AI based on publicly available news reporting. Original reporting by the linked source.
