Growing fears of a return to civil war grip Ethiopia following a significant offensive by Tigrayan fighters into the neighboring states of Afar and Amhara. This escalation coincides with the formation of a new rebel alliance explicitly aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.

The nation endured a devastating conflict between 2020 and 2022, which claimed the lives of approximately 600,000 people. That war was fought between the Ethiopian army and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Both sides are now exchanging accusations regarding who is responsible for reigniting open hostilities.

On Sunday, seven armed groups from across Ethiopia, including the TPLF, announced the establishment of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. This coalition's stated objective is to depose the federal government in Addis Ababa. The TPLF further escalated the situation on Wednesday by seizing control of three airports from federal police forces.

Ethiopian Airlines, the state-owned carrier, confirmed it has suspended flights to the affected region, citing "the current situation." Rebel attacks have also been launched into Afar and Amhara. A humanitarian source in Afar reported intense artillery barrages from the TPLF on Thursday as they attempted to capture the town of Yallo, situated near the Tigrayan border.

Fighting near the historic town of Lalibela led to the suspension of flights to the area on Thursday. Meanwhile, residents in Tigray are reportedly stocking up on food and cash. One resident, speaking to Reuters, expressed fears of facing siege conditions similar to those experienced during the previous war. Another resident from Adigrat, a city close to the Eritrean border, described panic buying and rapidly emptying shops.

"Food shortages are worsening as market shelves sit empty," the Adigrat resident told Reuters. "Essential medicines remain scarce and astronomically expensive. Daily survival has become a constant calculation."

The renewed hostilities and the formation of the broad rebel alliance signal a potentially destabilizing period for Ethiopia, raising international concern about the humanitarian impact and the fragile peace process.

Analysts are closely watching the strategic implications of the TPLF's advances and the cohesion of the newly formed alliance. The ability of the federal government to counter this multi-front challenge remains a key question as the conflict appears to be intensifying.