Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Tuesday that Israeli troops "will not leave" southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah poses a threat, a stance that directly conflicts with a key provision of a US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

Netanyahu's assertion, made during a visit to troops in southern Lebanon, follows similar remarks from Defense Minister Israel Katz, who stated Israel would not withdraw "a millimetre" until Hezbollah is disarmed. This position directly challenges the first clause of the US-Iran MoU, which calls for an immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.

Analysts suggest that while both the US and Iran desire the MoU's success, Israel's actions in Lebanon present a significant obstacle. The US-brokered framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which does not mandate Israeli withdrawal or halt attacks, has been criticized by Hezbollah. This has led to an entrenched Israeli military presence in Lebanon, even as direct conflict with Iran has eased.

The critical question facing observers is whether Netanyahu's firm stance is primarily a tactic for domestic political consumption ahead of anticipated elections, or a genuine obstacle that could derail the fragile MoU. The situation presents a complex balancing act for the Israeli leader.

Cyrus Schayegh, a professor of international history and politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute, explained that Netanyahu is navigating domestic pressures that make him reluctant to appear weak in the conflict with Hezbollah. The conflict escalated after Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel following US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28, which resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Any perception of capitulation, especially if seen as a result of US President Donald Trump's pressure, could be politically damaging for Netanyahu, particularly with elections expected around October. This delicate political calculation is compounded by the demands from Washington.

Schayegh noted that Netanyahu understands President Trump's objective: to prevent the Israel-Hezbollah conflict from destabilizing the broader US-Iran negotiations. Defying this expectation could strain relations with the United States at a critical juncture in these high-stakes diplomatic efforts.

The effectiveness of the MoU hinges on de-escalation across multiple fronts. Israel's continued military operations in Lebanon, regardless of their intensity, create a persistent point of contention that complicates broader regional diplomacy and the stated goals of the US-Iran agreement.