Migrant sea crossings to Europe have seen a sharp decline of 39 percent since January this year, as the journey becomes increasingly perilous, according to a new report by the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Approximately 60,000 migrants and refugees have reached Europe by boat in 2026, compared to about 98,000 during the same period last year.

Despite the reduction in arrivals, the IOM highlighted that the risks associated with these sea routes have escalated dramatically. The agency reported that at least 2,292 people have died or gone missing while attempting the crossing so far in 2026. This figure represents an increase from the 1,999 recorded during the same period in the previous year, with many of these tragedies occurring on overcrowded and unsuitable vessels departing from Libya.

IOM Director General Amy Pope stated that the figures present a dual narrative: fewer people are arriving by sea, yet alarming numbers continue to perish or disappear en route to safety. She emphasized that behind each statistic is a human life and called for strengthened international cooperation to prevent deaths, protect migrants, combat exploitation, and create more safe and legal pathways.

The Mediterranean and Atlantic routes are identified as the world's deadliest maritime pathways for migrants. The Central Mediterranean route, a primary crossing from North Africa to Italy, experienced a significant drop in arrivals, with numbers falling by more than half. However, deaths on this route climbed from 844 to 996. Greece saw a smaller decrease in arrivals but a substantial rise in fatalities, from 284 to 417. Spain also experienced a decline in both arrivals and overall numbers, yet recorded 879 deaths or disappearances on routes leading to its shores.

The IOM attributes the majority of these perilous journeys to individuals fleeing war and persecution. Surveys conducted by the organization on the Central Mediterranean route indicate that economic hardship is the primary driver for migration, followed by conflict and targeted violence. The report notes recent large-scale displacement from Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria due to ongoing conflicts as significant contributing factors.

Experts caution that the true death toll is likely even higher, as many vessels disappear without a trace, making official record-keeping difficult. The IOM's findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address the root causes of migration and enhance the safety of those undertaking dangerous journeys.

This trend of increased risk despite decreased numbers poses a significant challenge for European border agencies and humanitarian organizations. The focus is shifting towards understanding how to make existing, albeit reduced, transit routes safer and how to deter individuals from embarking on such life-threatening voyages.

Further analysis will be required to assess the effectiveness of current border control measures and humanitarian aid efforts in mitigating the risks faced by migrants attempting to reach Europe by sea.