Despite a recent announcement by President Donald Trump regarding a deal with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a significant number of vessels remain stalled, with over 580 ships appearing to be waiting in the Gulf. BBC Verify's analysis of MarineTraffic ship-tracking data reveals that only a handful of vessels have passed through the critical waterway since the deal was announced. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies are typically transported, was effectively closed by Iran following U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28.

Experts point to several substantial impediments preventing the resumption of normal traffic levels. These include ongoing security concerns, the potential presence of mines, and the imposition of tolls. The data from MarineTraffic on Tuesday indicated that more than 250 tankers and over 330 cargo ships are currently within the Gulf, with approximately 75% of these tankers reported as stationary. Satellite imagery shows many of these vessels congregating near major oil export terminals in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. The total number of ships in the region is likely even higher, as many vessels do not broadcast their location and therefore are not included in the tracking data.

Naveen Das, a senior oil analyst at trade analytics firm Kpler, commented that the initial sign of traffic resuming would be an "exodus of the vessels that are trapped inside the Gulf." However, this significant movement has not yet materialized, indicating persistent challenges.

The security situation remains a primary deterrent. Martin Kelly of crisis management firm EOS Risk Group stated that "it would take an extremely brave captain to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, given the current state." Since Iran began its effective blockade in late February, it has reportedly fired upon ships attempting to cross without authorization. The U.S. initiated its own naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13 and has since disabled nine vessels that were deemed non-compliant, including the use of Hellfire missiles on some ships, according to U.S. Central Command.

Although President Trump announced the immediate removal of the U.S. naval blockade on Sunday, he later indicated it would remain in place until the deal with Iran is formally signed. Satellite imagery dated June 15 shows four U.S. warships positioned near the U.S. blockade line at the entrance to the strait, underscoring the continued military presence and operational complexities.

The potential for naval mines poses another significant threat to maritime traffic. While not explicitly detailed in the source material, the historical context of such conflicts often involves the deployment of mines to disrupt shipping lanes. Clearing these would require extensive demining operations, a process that can be lengthy and hazardous, further delaying the return to normal transit.

Furthermore, the imposition of tolls by Iran, either as a condition of passage or as a revenue-generating measure following the conflict, could also be a factor deterring ship operators. Such charges can significantly increase the operational costs for shipping companies, potentially making alternative routes or delayed transit more economically viable, despite the longer journey times.

The prolonged closure or restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz has considerable implications for global energy markets and supply chains. Any disruption to this critical shipping lane can lead to price volatility for oil and gas, impacting economies worldwide. The current standoff highlights the geopolitical sensitivities surrounding the strait and the delicate balance required to ensure unimpeded global trade.