A memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at ending the US-Iran war was electronically signed near Paris on Wednesday, following weeks of declarations from President Donald Trump about an impending agreement. The 14-point framework commits Iran to refraining from nuclear weapons development in exchange for sanctions relief, a $300 billion reconstruction plan, and the reopening of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

This understanding comes after Trump, who withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated under former President Barack Obama, had repeatedly claimed a better deal with Iran was imminent. The current MOU, however, has drawn scrutiny from analysts who suggest it may concede more to Iran than initially apparent, though it is considered premature to definitively compare it to the JCPOA.

The newly signed MOU initiates a 60-day negotiation period. Key provisions include Iran's commitment not to "procure or develop nuclear weapons" and a mutual agreement to "resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon." While the JCPOA also included a commitment from Iran against developing nuclear weapons, it permitted uranium enrichment up to 3.67 percent for 15 years, sufficient for nuclear power but far below weapons-grade levels.

Experts caution that the MOU's immediate focus appears to be on extending a ceasefire and resolving immediate war-related issues, rather than the detailed nuclear program limitations that characterized the JCPOA. Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an associate fellow at Chatham House, stated that comparing the two agreements at this early stage, given the MOU's broader scope beyond just the nuclear program, would not be "fair."

Shahram Akbarzadeh, director of the Middle East Studies Forum at Deakin University, expressed skepticism regarding the MOU's substance, noting that it "does not address any issue of substance." He elaborated that the framework "simply leaves all questions regarding Iran’s nuclear programme and enrichment to be negotiated between the United States and Iran," pushing critical details into the upcoming negotiation phase.

The JCPOA, a multi-year negotiation involving international experts, imposed stringent limits on Iran's nuclear activities, including a reduction in centrifuges and a cap on enriched uranium stockpiles. In return, Iran received significant sanctions relief. Trump's administration cited Iran's ballistic missile program and regional activities as reasons for withdrawing from the deal and reimposing sanctions.

Details regarding the specific terms of the sanctions relief to be granted to Iran, the structure of the $300 billion reconstruction plan, and the precise mechanisms for resolving the disposition of enriched uranium remain to be negotiated. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil transport, is also contingent on the outcome of these discussions.

Unresolved questions linger about whether the 60-day negotiation period will yield a comprehensive and verifiable agreement that addresses the international community's concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional policies, or if it will represent a significant departure from the multilateral approach taken under the JCPOA.