The United Kingdom's long-awaited Defence Investment Plan (DIP) has been released, outlining a projected increase in defense spending. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer described the additional funding as a "huge historic shift for our nation." However, analysis by BBC Verify suggests the plan may not fully meet the commitments made by the UK and its NATO allies.

The UK has pledged to increase its NATO-qualifying defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027. This commitment was further bolstered by the decision to classify the activities of security and intelligence agencies as NATO-qualifying defense spending, aiming for 2.6% of GDP by 2027. Prime Minister Starmer has also expressed an ambition to reach 3% of GDP in the next parliamentary term.

At a NATO summit in June 2025, alliance members agreed to a collective goal of spending 5% of GDP on defense and security by 2035, with 3.5% specifically allocated to core NATO-qualifying defense. The remaining 1.5% could cover areas such as critical infrastructure protection, cyber defense, civil preparedness, innovation, and strengthening the defense industrial base.

According to the published DIP, UK defense spending is projected to rise to 2.7% of GDP by 2027-28. The plan does not provide year-by-year projections beyond this period but indicates that spending will remain at 2.7% of GDP by the end of the decade. This suggests no planned increase between 2027 and 2030.

This 2.7% figure represents a modest increase of approximately 0.02% of GDP compared to the original DIP projections before former Defence Secretary John Healey resigned. In today's money, this translates to an additional £600 million by 2030. However, Healey has criticized the plan, stating that it falls short of what is needed for national defense in a period of rising threats and that a clear target date and plan are required to achieve the 3% goal and NATO's 3.5% target by 2035.

The Ministry of Defence's overall budget for 2026-27 is set at £68.3 billion according to the DIP. NATO-qualifying defense spending, which includes broader items like military pensions, was estimated by the alliance at £70 billion for 2025, equivalent to 2.4% of the UK's GDP for that year.

Starmer stated that the measures within the DIP would take the UK to 4.2% under the NATO commitment, though this figure appears to encompass the broader 5% target rather than the core 3.5% defense spending requirement.

Questions remain about how the UK intends to bridge the gap to meet NATO's 3.5% core defense spending target by 2035, given the current trajectory outlined in the DIP. The plan's focus on increasing spending to 2.7% by 2027-28, with no further projected increases by 2030, leaves a significant shortfall to be addressed in the coming years.