White evangelical Protestant voters remain a strong base of support for former President Donald Trump, though his backing within the demographic has seen a notable decline since he retook office. A recent poll indicates that while this group continues to favor Trump over other demographics, his support has fallen from 77 percent at the time of his second inauguration to 63 percent.

This shift occurs as Trump's overall approval rating has reached a historic low of 31 percent. White evangelicals are a critical demographic for the Republican Party, and any erosion of support could significantly impact the upcoming midterm elections on November 3, where Republicans aim to maintain their congressional majorities.

The poll, conducted by Reuters and Ipsos, highlights a decrease in Trump's standing among this key voting bloc. This comes at a time when Democrats are increasingly seen as having a strong chance to gain control of the US House of Representatives, with growing possibilities of flipping the Senate amidst widespread concerns about affordability and the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran.

Despite these trends, Republican strategists are reportedly relying on their core base, including white evangelicals, to counteract potential Democratic gains. Trump recently campaigned in South Carolina, a state with a significant white evangelical population, where he has historically performed well.

In South Carolina, where exit polls from the 2024 presidential primary showed six in ten Republican voters were white evangelicals, Trump carried the state by a substantial margin in 2024. However, current polling for the midterm Senate race indicates Republican candidate Darline Graham holds only a slim lead over Democratic challenger Annie Andrews, with the election just two weeks away.

During his South Carolina rally, Trump addressed social issues important to conservative Christians, including policies concerning transgender individuals. He made disparaging remarks about Annie Andrews, labeling her a "fanatical transgender activist," despite her moderate stance on the issue within the Democratic Party. This tactic highlights Trump's strategy of energizing his base through culturally divisive topics.

White evangelicals have historically been a cornerstone of Trump's political coalition. Data from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) indicated they constituted nearly one-third of Trump's winning coalition in the 2024. The current decline, though still leaving him with a majority of their support, could represent a significant challenge for Republican candidates in close races.

The upcoming midterms will test the enduring influence of Trump within the evangelical community and his ability to mobilize this demographic, even as his overall popularity wanes and national concerns shift.