Fighting is intensifying across northern Ethiopia, nearly four years after a peace deal was signed to end a devastating two-year war in the Tigray region. The conflict has now spread into the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions, with government-aligned forces reporting the capture of the strategic town of Alamata in Tigray on September 28. Simultaneously, Tigrayan forces have advanced into Afar.

This escalation is occurring despite the November 2022 peace agreement that officially concluded the war between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The renewed hostilities and expansion of the conflict raise significant concerns about regional stability and the humanitarian situation.

Telecommunications have been disrupted across much of Tigray, and commercial flights have been suspended, severing communication lines for families and hindering humanitarian aid delivery. Ethiopian army chief has accused Eritrea, Sudan’s army, and Egypt of backing armed groups involved, claims all parties have denied. Egypt has affirmed its respect for the sovereignty of neighboring states.

The fighting is concentrated in three northern regions: Tigray, Amhara, and Afar, with multiple active fronts. In southern Tigray, the town of Alamata, a critical hub for supplies located about 120 km south of the regional capital Mekelle, has been taken by government forces and allies. Drone strikes, including on schools and a hospital, were reported in Alamata on September 22.

A separate front has opened near the Tekeze River in western Tigray, a territory contested by Tigray and Amhara. In northern Amhara, government forces have retaken Kobo, Gidan, and Sekota. Further east, Tigrayan forces and the Afar armed group Ugugumo are advancing into Afar, potentially threatening the Semera-Djibouti corridor, Ethiopia's primary import route, particularly for fuel.

This surge in violence coincides with the formation of a new opposition coalition. On September 20, seven Ethiopian armed and political groups announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival (Alliance for Survival). This alliance aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establish an inclusive transitional administration.

The alliance's primary military component is the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which led the offensive. Other key members include the Amhara Fano National Movement, a coalition of Fano factions that shifted allegiance against Abiy's government in 2023 after previously supporting federal forces, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which has been in conflict with federal forces in Oromia since 2018 seeking greater autonomy.

The involvement of various regional actors and the formation of new alliances suggest a complex and potentially prolonged conflict. The territorial disputes, particularly in western Tigray, and the strategic importance of routes like the Semera-Djibouti corridor indicate that the fighting has far-reaching implications for Ethiopia's internal stability and its international trade dependencies. Unresolved questions remain about the full extent of external support for the various factions and the potential for further escalation.